Educate All Students: Larry Miller's Blog

October 13, 2010

Public School Enrollment Projections from the National Center for Educational Statistics

Filed under: Data and Statistics — millerlf @ 8:36 pm

From the National Center for Educational Statistics at:

Elementary and Secondary Education

In fall 2010, nearly 49.4 million students will attend public elementary and secondary schools. Of these, 34.7 million will be in prekindergarten through 8th grade and 14.7 million will be in grades 9 through 12 (source). An additional 5.8 million students are expected to attend private schools this fall.

About 1,094,000 children are expected to attend public prekindergarten this fall. Enrollment in kindergarten, at approximately 3,693,000, is projected to be at an all-time high (source).

Public school systems will employ about 3.3 million teachers this fall, resulting in a pupil/teacher ratio of 15.3, which is lower than in 1999, when the ratio was 16.1. Approximately 0.5 million teachers will be working in private schools this fall, where the pupil/teacher ratio is estimated at 12.8 (source).

In 2008-09, there were about 13,800 public school districts (source) containing about 99,000 public schools, including about 4,700 charter schools (source). In 2007-08, there were about 33,700 private schools offering kindergarten or higher grades (source).

Approximately 1,094,000 children are expected to attend public prekindergarten this fall. Enrollment in kindergarten, at approximately 3,693,000, is also projected to be at an all-time high (source).

About 4.1 million public school students are expected to enroll in 9th grade, a typical entry grade for many high schools (source).

Current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools will be about $540 billion for the 2010-11 school year. The national average current expenditure per student is projected at $10,792, up from $10,297 in actual expenditures in 2007-08 (source and source).

The percentage of high school dropouts among 16- through 24-year-olds declined from 11.8 percent in 1998 to 8.1 percent in 2009. There have been declines in the dropout rates for Blacks and Hispanics, although their rates remain higher than those for Whites (source and U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, October 2009).

About 3,273,000 students are expected to graduate from high school in 2010–11, including 2,962,000 from public high schools and 311,000 from private high schools (source).

The percentage of high school completers enrolling in college in the fall following high school completion was 70.1 percent in 2009. The rate for females (73.8 percent) was higher than the rate for males (66.0 percent) (source).

College and University Education

In fall 2010, a record 19.1 million students are expected to attend the Nation’s 2-year and 4-year colleges and universities, an increase of about 3.8 million since fall 2000 (source).

Females are expected to comprise the majority of college students: 10.9 million females will attend in fall 2010, compared with 8.3 million males. Although the majority of students will attend full time (an estimated 11.9 million for fall 2010), about 7.2 million are expected to attend part time (source).

About 7.5 million students are expected to attend public 4-year institutions (source), 6.7 million will attend public 2-year institutions (source), about 4.6 million will attend private 4-year institutions (source), and 0.3 million will attend private 2-year colleges (source).

The record college enrollments have been driven by both increases in the traditional college age population and rising enrollment rates. Between 2000 and 2009, the 18- to 24-year-old population rose from approximately 27.3 million to approximately 30.1 million (source) and the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds enrolled in college also was higher in 2009 (41.3 percent) than in 2000 (35.5 percent) (source and U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, October 2009).

Increasing numbers and percentages of Black and Hispanic students are attending college. Between 2000 and 2008, the percentage of college students who were Black rose from 11.3 to 13.5 percent, and the percentage of students who were Hispanic rose from 9.5 to 11.9 percent (source). The increases reflect growing numbers of college-age Blacks and Hispanics (source) and higher enrollment rates for Hispanics (source).

For the 2008-09 academic year, annual prices for undergraduate tuition, room, and board were estimated to be $12,283 at public institutions (including $4,544 for in-state tuition) and $31,233 at private institutions (source) .

During the 2010-11 school year, colleges and universities are expected to award 798,000 associate’s degrees (source); 1,669,000 bachelor’s degrees (source); 659,000 master’s degrees (source); 96,500 first-professional degrees (source); and 69,600 doctor’s degrees (source).

For more information, please see:

  • The Condition of Education: The annual report to Congress on important developments and trends in U.S. education.
  • The Digest of Education Statistics: A compilation of statistical information covering the broad field of American education from prekindergarten through graduate school.
  • State-level data resource page: Links to selected publications and websites that provide state-by-state information on achievement, attainment, demographics, enrollment, finances and teachers at the elementary, secondary, and postsecondary levels.

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